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Energy markets do not move purely on supply and demand. They move on geopolitics, investor expectations, and perceived risk. When global power shifts, energy pricing changes long before any physical oil or gas flows through pipelines.
Recent developments involving Donald Trump and Venezuela have put one of the world’s largest untapped oil reserves back into the global conversation. Even for businesses buying electricity or gas in Australia, this matters, because global oil markets still anchor the price of energy everywhere.
Understanding how this works helps explain why business energy costs keep rising, even when consumption stays flat.
Why Venezuela Matters to Global Energy Markets
Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves on the planet, larger than Saudi Arabia. For more than a decade those reserves have been locked behind political instability, sanctions, and underinvestment, removing millions of barrels per day from global supply.
That lost production tightened oil markets and contributed to higher global energy prices. Even today, wholesale electricity and gas prices still reflect this long-term shortage of supply.
Any political change that opens Venezuelan oil back to international markets changes how traders, suppliers, and energy retailers think about future pricing.
Trump’s Influence on Energy Expectations
Donald Trump has long linked U.S. foreign policy to energy leverage and global supply. Any move that stabilises or re-opens Venezuelan production would be read by markets as a signal that more oil is coming in future years.
Even if it takes time to rebuild infrastructure, energy markets respond immediately to changing probabilities. More expected supply reduces scarcity and lowers the risk premium that gets built into energy pricing around the world.
This doesn’t mean energy becomes cheap overnight. It means the direction of pricing expectations changes, which is what energy retailers use when setting long-term business contracts.
Why Oil Still Affects Business Electricity and Gas
Many companies assume oil no longer matters because they buy electricity, not petrol. In reality, oil prices influence the entire global energy system. They affect LNG pricing, wholesale gas costs, generator fuel pricing, futures markets and, ultimately, how much risk retailers build into their offers.
When oil markets are volatile, energy retailers become more conservative. That leads to higher contract prices, longer risk buffers, and less competitive quoting for businesses.
This flows directly into the rates you see when you compare business electricity or gas offers, whether you are in Melbourne, Sydney or Brisbane.
What This Means for Business Energy Buyers
Geopolitical shifts like Venezuela’s potential re-entry into the oil market do not appear on your invoice immediately. They show up when you renew or reprice your energy contracts.
Retailers base those prices on forward markets and their assessment of global risk. If they believe energy markets will remain unstable, they protect themselves by charging more. If future supply looks more secure, competition increases and pricing pressure eases.
This is why businesses that rely on one-off quotes often lock in poor pricing without realising it. Timing, market conditions and global risk all matter just as much as usage.
This is also why many organisations are shifting toward structured procurement and continuous market monitoring rather than relying on manual renewals. Platforms like Termina’s business energy procurement system are designed to track markets, aggregate demand and secure pricing based on data rather than guesswork.
Why Energy Is Becoming a Financial Risk
Energy is no longer just a utility. It is a traded commodity influenced by politics, war, supply chains and financial markets. Businesses that treat energy as a fixed overhead are increasingly exposed to price shocks, while those using data-driven procurement models can manage risk and improve outcomes.
This is particularly important for multi-site organisations and large users, where even small pricing differences translate into significant cost swings. Tools like Termina’s multi-site energy management and energy data consolidation platforms exist precisely to handle this complexity.
Trump and Venezuela may seem far away, but their impact flows straight into the wholesale markets that determine what your business pays.
