Over the last few years, Australian businesses have ridden a wild energy rollercoaster.
Wholesale prices spiked dramatically in 2022, eased back in 2023 to 24, and then swung again as coal outages, gas prices and weather driven renewables all pulled the market in different directions. Regulators now describe a market where average prices have eased from the extremes but volatility has increased, with more frequent price spikes linked to outages and variable wind and solar. Australian Energy Regulator (AER)
At the same time, Australia is transitioning at high speed:
- Renewables supplied around 46% of electricity in late 2024, and total renewable output has jumped more than 30% since 2021. Clean Energy Council
- Big coal plants like Eraring in NSW have had their closure dates extended to August 2027 to avoid reliability and price shocks while the transition catches up. Environment and Heritage
- New mega-batteries such as the Waratah Super Battery are coming online to stabilise the grid and smooth out some of those spikes. The Guardian
So yes, we’re moving toward a cleaner, more modern grid. But in the meantime, energy prices are still the most volatile in the world, and the market price cap has climbed to over $20,000/MWh in 2025 and it’s being hit more often. The Centre for Independent Studies
For Aussie businesses, the question isn’t “Will prices go up or down?” It’s:
How do we stop volatility from smashing our margins between now and 2026 (and beyond)?
Let’s unpack what’s changing and what you can do now to protect yourself.
Why 2026 is a pivotal year for business energy costs
Several moving pieces converge around 2025 to 26:
1. Policy support and rebates are unwinding
The federal Energy Price Relief Plan and various rebates helped blunt the worst of the energy price shock. But those coal and gas price caps and support measures have time limits, with the coal price cap expiring in mid-2024 and other supports tapering. Australian National Audit Office
The Reserve Bank has already flagged that the unwinding of electricity rebates will add to inflation in 2025 and 2026. Reserve Bank of Australia
Translation for businesses: don’t assume your softer bills in 2024 to 25 will last.
2. “Average price” stories hide a volatility problem
Regulators and market bodies note that:
- Wholesale spot prices have eased from 2022 levels due to more renewables and interventions. Australian Energy Regulator (AER)
- But high-price events remain common, driven by generator outages, transmission constraints, heatwaves and stretches of low wind/solar output. Australian Energy Regulator (AER)
In some quarters, futures for 2026 are a bit lower than previous years, hinting at a calmer average, but that doesn’t remove the risk of sudden spikes that flow into retail contracts, especially for businesses on pass-through or poorly structured deals. Leading Edge Energy
3. New rules change how retailers pass through price changes
In June 2025, the Australian Energy Market Commission announced reforms that will limit retailers to one price increase per year, with the rules kicking in from 1 July 2026. News.com.au
This is great for predictability: no more surprise mid-year hikes on your bill.
But it also means retailers will:
- Price more conservatively upfront to cover 12 months of risk.
- Have less flexibility to adjust if costs fall, unless you actively renegotiate.
If you’re on a default offer, the news is mixed: some regulators forecast small reductions in default prices for 2024 to 25 (around 1 to 9% for many small businesses), but that’s off a high base and doesn’t erase the underlying volatility problem. Next Business Energy+2Australian Energy Regulator (AER)+2
The bottom line: volatility is now a feature, not a bug
Put simply:
- The grid is becoming more renewable, which is good for long-term costs and emissions.
- Coal exits, weather events and network constraints will keep causing short-term shocks.
- Policy changes and rebates can delay or smooth the pain, but they don’t remove it.
For medium and large businesses and even smaller operators with energy-intensive loads, waiting to see what happens in 2026 is the riskiest strategy.
You need a plan.
What Aussie businesses must do now (not in 2026)
Here are the practical steps businesses should take over the next 6 to 18 months to protect themselves from energy price volatility.
1. Get control of your data: usage, tariffs and timing
You can’t manage what you can’t see.
Start by pulling together:
- 12 to 24 months of bills (electricity and gas).
- Interval data from your meter (if available).
- Details of your current contract:
a) Is it fixed or variable?
b) When does it expire?
c) Are there demand charges or pass-through components?
Look for:
- Peak demand charges: one bad half-hour can shape a whole year of costs.
- Time of use patterns: when are you using most of your energy and can that shift?
- Sites on default offers: these are often the “lazy tax” on energy.
This is the foundation for every other decision and exactly the kind of analysis a platform like termina.io is built to automate and visualise.
2. Don’t sleepwalk into 2026 on default contracts
If your contract rolls off in late 2025 or 2026, you don’t want to be renewing at the last minute.
Instead:
- Start tendering early. Engage the market 6 to 12 months before expiry so you can compare multiple retailers and structures.
- Consider multi-year contracts if pricing is attractive and aligns with your risk appetite.
- Avoid pure spot exposure unless you genuinely understand and can tolerate the risk.
Forward markets and consultant reports for 2025 to 26 show some easing of wholesale costs relative to the worst of 2022 to 23, but risks remain uneven across states and seasons. Australian Energy Regulator (AER)+2energyaction.com.au+2
Locking in part of your load with a structured deal (and leaving some flexible) can strike a balance between protection and opportunity.
3. Explore Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and GreenPower
One of the biggest shifts in the 2026 energy landscape is the rise of direct renewable supply for businesses:
- Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) allow you to lock in long-term pricing from a wind or solar farm.
- GreenPower lets you match your consumption with accredited renewable certificates.
These can help you:
- Stabilise long-term costs by hedging a portion of your load at agreed prices.
- Hit sustainability targets and support your ESG story.
- Demonstrate to customers and investors that you’re actively decarbonising.
As renewables now supply a record share of Australia’s energy and more projects come online, PPAs and GreenPower are no longer just for big corporates. Clean Energy Council+1
The challenge is complexity: structuring a PPA or choosing the right GreenPower option requires data, modelling and negotiating power. That’s where intermediaries and platforms (like Termina) aggregating thousands of sites can unlock better deals than going alone.
4. Invest in efficiency and flexible demand — not just cheaper kWh
“Cheaper energy” is one lever. Using less and using it smarter is another.
Practical moves include:
- Lighting and HVAC upgrades: LED, smart controls and high-efficiency air-conditioning can can deliver fast paybacks.
- Process optimisation and scheduling: shifting non-critical loads (e.g. pumping, refrigeration, EV charging) out of peak periods.
- On-site solar and batteries: particularly for sites with large daytime usage or demand charges.
With renewables now driving more of the daytime supply, aligning your load with times of abundant solar and smoothing your peak demand can dramatically reduce both your bills and your exposure to extreme spot events. Australian Energy Regulator (AER)+2The Guardian+2
A 5 to 10% reduction in peak demand can sometimes save more than chasing a 2 to 3% discount on your headline tariff.
5. Treat energy like any other financial risk
Energy is now a board-level risk, not just a line item in “utilities”.
Good practice includes:
- Scenario modelling: What happens to your EBITDA if tariffs rise by 10 to 20%?
- Hedging strategy: How much of your load do you fix, and for how long?
- Governance: Who owns energy decisions internally and how often are they reviewed?
- Reporting: Regular dashboards on consumption, cost, emissions and contract status.
The goal is not to predict the exact 2026 price, no one can, but to make sure that whatever happens, you’re not exposed in a way that surprises your budget or your lenders.
Where Termina fits in
This is where termina.io can play a key role in the 2026 energy landscape.
A modern business energy platform should help you:
- See everything in one place: bills, contracts, tariffs and multi-site usage.
- Benchmark your rates: against thousands of other sites to spot overcharging.
- Run tenders and negotiate: with retailers, using aggregated buying power to unlock sharper pricing and better terms.
- Model PPAs and GreenPower options: so you can pursue real sustainability outcomes without taking on unmanaged risk.
- Identify efficiency wins: from tariff optimisation to peak-demand reduction projects.
In other words: turn energy from a volatile, reactive cost into a strategic advantage. It's like having a team working full-time in your business to optimise your energy.
Final word: 2026 rewards businesses that act early
If you’re an Australian business owner or CFO, here’s the simple truth:
- The energy market is not “broken”, it’s transitioning.
- Volatility will remain a feature over the next few years, even as average prices move around.
- Policy changes in 2026 will help with bill predictability, but they won’t protect you on their own.
The businesses that win in this environment will be the ones that:
- Know their numbers.
- Lock in smart, risk-aware contracts.
- Embrace renewables and efficiency.
- Treat energy as a managed risk, not a sunk cost.
If you’d like to understand what that looks like for your sites, your contracts and your risk profile, that’s exactly what termina.io is built for.
